I doubt that anyone was more surprised than Donald Trump himself, when he became president-elect of America this morning. The current trend for overturning the expected, and making a mockery of the opinion polls has reached across America. Once again, it would seem that the silent majority has chosen to become the outspoken majority.
Of course, less people actually voted for Trump than for all of his opponents combined. But the electoral college system, much like the first-past-the-post system we have in the UK, is no respecter of majority voting. Whatever the arguments behind the system, he has won. It was a surprise to me, as I had always expected Clinton to get almost 60% of the vote. It is not the first time this year that I have been surprised at the outcome of a vote.
Although I voted to Leave, I was still overwhelmed by the decision of UK voters to reject the EU. That same silent majority, many who didn’t normally bother to vote in any election, have sent a clear message to the Establishment, in both countries. Ignore the ordinary people at your peril, or you will eventually reap what you have sown. Of course, I am no fan of Donald Trump. Then again, I wasn’t that happy with the alternative. But I am not an American, and it is not for me to tell them what to do with their country. However, that country does have an impact on what happens in the rest of the world, so it is understandable that outsiders may have opinions and concerns.
It is early days yet. Despite the rhetoric, Trump cannot just steamroller his plans, and some of his more bizarre ideas, through the American political system. He has to get laws approved, and policies agreed and funded. To presume that he is a one-man band is naive, as it is to believe that he will go ahead with his electoral promises. There is unlikely to ever be a wall built along the border with Mexico. Though immigration laws might become tougher, and we could well see a drift back to a more isolationist country, with the introduction of trade tariffs and increased import taxes.
But the dollar rules in the USA, and in most of the western world too. Sooner or later, big businesses will carry on behind the scenes, allowing Trump to do what is best for them, if not for the workers who mainly voted for him. There is unlikely to be a re-birth of the American Dream. For the rest of us outside of that country, once the streamers have fallen to the floor, the balloons deflated, and the cheering can no longer be heard, it will be situation normal in America.